Afghanistan withdrawal was the greatest embarrassment in the history

Unbelievable!

If Trump does decide to run in 2024, Republicans had better consider what could happen – and, in fact, what probably will happen. Because it’s happened before, and it happened to the Republicans, in the election of 1912. The situation is eerily familiar.

In 1912, a brash, outspoken former President, Theodore Roosevelt, having spent the previous four years frustrated, increasingly angry, stewing over what might have been, and what he thought should be happening. He can’t just let it go. He is determined to reclaim the White House. TR just assumes the Republicans will renominate him, but Party leaders know that many Republicans are really leery of this, and are uncomfortable with TR. Some are even opposed, but they won’t say so directly. But party leaders have to handle this very carefully. What should they do?

The realize they have to do something. So, they go to Sagamore Hill, TR’s mansion in New York, and they try to gently persuade him not to run. They’re not very gentle, nor very persuasive, and TR realizes what they’re up to. Furious and outraged at what he sees as pure treachery, TR throws a gigantic hissy fit, denouncing the GOP in words newspapers dare not print. He puts the RNC on notice: this is his party, he deserves the nomination, he ought to be President – and don’t you dare say otherwise. His message was clear: I’m the President. Nominate me.

That message was heard, but was not well received. Knowing how dangerous and destructive TR could be when his edicts were not obeyed, 35 of the then-48 states abruptly cancel their Republican primaries. Of the 13 states that did hold primaries, TR won 9…..so there! Smug and arrogant, he headed off to the Convention with 278 delegates, nearly six times more than his nearest rival.

Then, as now, smugness and arrogance are GOP traits. But so was strict party loyalty, come what may. The stage was set for an all-out war for the Republican nomination. At the Convention, party leaders said, basically, TR made America great, but that was then, and this is now, and we’re in charge, so shut up and follow instructions.

Being Republicans, the delegates did as they were told. TR lost the nomination – narrowly – but everyone knew what would happen next. And they were right. Humiliated and enraged, TR stormed out and declares he’ll form his own party, the Progressive or “Bull Moose” Party. The media ate it up; TR was as obnoxious as ever – but he sold papers. So he was mentioned nearly every day, often negatively. Given all this, TR was absolutely convinced that the media was lying. Americans loved and worshipped him, they understood him, they listened to him, and they sympathized with him. What’s more, it was God’s will that he be President, and His will be done. So did his followers. Millions of people walked away from the Republican Party, and cast their lot with TR. Bull Moosers were just like TR himself: True-blue Americans, red-blooded patriots; proud, haughty, and spirited.

And, it seems, too busy to read the Bible. For example, Proverbs 16:18: “Pride goeth before destruction, and a haughty spirit before a fall.”

TR lost the 1912 Presidential election, to Democrat Woodrow Wilson. Wilson was elected easily, but with less than 42% of the popular vote. TR finished a distant second, winning 27.4% nationwide. He did manage to carry 6 of the 48 states, while Wilson carried 41 states. Incredibly embarrassing, the Republicans carried only ONE state: Utah.

The 1912 election was, far and away, the worst-ever showing by the Republican Party, before or since. The GOP lost the White House for the first time in 20 years, and for only the third time in its 52 years of existence. They also lost 61 House seats; up to then, their third-worst beating ever. This would not be eclipsed until 1932, during the Great Depression, when Republicans lost an incredible 101 House seats.

Voter turnout in 1912 was down nearly 7% from 1908, yet another record. Nearly all of those who stayed home were Republicans, who didn’t want to vote for the Republican nominee – who, incidentally, was the incumbent President William Howard Taft. They actually snubbed the nominee of their own party. But they also refused to vote for TR. It was a bitterly hard lesson to learn, but Republicans have notoriously short memories. They’ll may be about to learn it yet again.

The unprecedented Republican disaster of 1912 was reflected in the US Senate, too – and in a way that, by today’s standards, is difficult to imagine. Back in 1912, US Senators were still appointed by State Legislatures, and those Legislatures recalled 4 sitting Senate seats, totally unheard of. So much so that Republicans vowed this would never happen again, and it didn’t Just 5 months later, the 17th Amendment would be ratified. After that, Senators would be elected by popular vote.

The bottom line is this: Trump may be very popular among his base, but that’s not nearly enough to get him elected in 2024. That’s not just an opinion, but a fact. In 1912, TR was very popular with his base, but he was brash, egotistical, and very outspoken. Like Trump, TR said what was on his mind, whether or not it was popular, and he often said things he knew would irritate others, because he knew it would be in all the papers. Some people love that. Most people don’t, and they especially don’t love it in a President.

Many people loved TR. Many people hated him. While hatred is no stronger than love, it usually speaks much louder and more forcefully. In 1912, a lot of people felt that way. One month before Election Day, the Gallup Poll reported that a whopping 68% of registered voters had said they would not vote for Theodore Roosevelt – not under any circumstances. And yet, today, TR is considered one of our nation’s most popular and effective Presidents.

Sound familiar?